When you read that investment markets have fallen you might feel nervous or scared about the effect it could have on your future. Emotions like these sometimes lead to impulsive decisions that aren’t always in your best interest when you consider the long term. So, read on to discover some insightful pieces of data that could help you remain calm.
Volatility is part of investing – a huge range of factors might influence whether a stock market rises or falls. However, history shows that, over the long term, markets typically go on to deliver returns.
Recently, markets experienced volatility amid fears that the US was on track for a recession. Indeed, on 2 August 2024, US technology-focused index Nasdaq fell 10% from its peak. Just a few days later, the market rallied, and it was technology firms that led the way.
Concerns about the US economy weren’t confined to the US indices either. Markets fell in Europe and Asia too. In fact, Japan’s Nikkei index suffered its worst day since 1987 following the news. Again, it didn’t take long for the markets to bounce back.
Returns cannot be guaranteed and recoveries may be over longer periods. Yet, the above example highlights how making a knee-jerk decision due to volatility could harm your long-term wealth. If you’d responded by selling your investments when you saw markets were falling, you’d have missed out on the recovery.
So, if volatility is part of your experience when investing, how can you remain calm? These pieces of data could help you hold your nerve.
1. Investment risk falls over a longer time frame
It’s important to note that all investments carry some risk. There is a chance that you could receive less than the original amount you invested. However, the level of risk varies between investments, so you could invest in a way that reflects your risk profile and financial circumstances.
Usually, it’s a good idea to invest with a five-year minimum time frame. By investing for longer, you’re giving your investments a chance to recover if they fall due to short-term volatility.
Research supports this too. Using almost 100 years of data on the US stock market, Schroders found that if you invested for a month, you would have lost 40% of the time. Interestingly, when you invest for longer, your odds of losing money start to fall.
When invested for five years, the odds of losing money fall to 22%, and at 10 years it falls to 13%. The research shows there have been no 20-year periods during the time analysed where stocks lost money overall.
You can’t rule out risk entirely, but by investing for a long-term goal, you could minimise the chance of losing money.
2. Sharp drops in the market occur more often than you think
One of the reasons investors react to market movements is that sharp falls may feel like they’re unprecedented and that you should act as a result. Yet, the Schroders research suggests that sharp falls are more common than you might think.
Analysing the MSCI World Index, which captures large and mid-cap representations across 23 developed countries, the study found that 10% falls happen in more years than they don’t. Indeed, in the 52 calendar years to 2024, investors experienced a 10% fall in 30 of them.
Even significant falls of 20% may occur more than you expect – roughly every six years.
Despite these dips, markets have delivered returns over the 50 years analysed. So, holding your nerve during these sharp falls often makes sense when you take a long-term view.
3. Periods of “heightened fear” could be more lucrative
The Vix Index measures expected volatility in the US market– it’s often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge”. It can highlight when investors perceive there is a greater risk of losing money. For example, it last reached a significant peak in May 2022 in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine.
Schroders has assessed how your investments would fare if you sold assets during periods of “heightened fear” to hold your wealth in cash, and then shifted back to investments when the fear receded. Taking this approach when invested in the S&P 500 – an index of the 500 largest public companies in the US – would have yielded average returns of 7.4% a year between 1990 and 2024.
However, if you didn’t let fear affect your investment decisions and remained invested, you may have benefited from average annual returns of 9.9%.
So, even when it seems like investing isn’t a good idea because of the economic environment or geopolitical tensions, it could be worthwhile taking a step back to consider what’s driving your decision.
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Please note:
This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.
The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.
